Climate change and permafrost

Permafrost is ground that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years, and it underlies roughly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere's land surface, storing vast quantities of organic carbon accumulated over thousands of years. As Arctic temperatures rise at roughly twice the global average rate, this frozen ground is thawing, releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere and creating a feedback loop that can accelerate warming beyond what greenhouse gas emissions alone would produce. Researchers are working to quantify how much carbon is actually vulnerable to release, how quickly microbial decomposition proceeds under different thaw conditions, and how vegetation shifts—such as the northward spread of shrubs across the tundra—alter the surface energy balance and hydrology of these landscapes. A central open question is whether Arctic ecosystems will become net carbon sources within this century and, if so, whether existing climate models adequately capture the speed and spatial variability of that transition.

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Keywords

PermafrostArcticClimate ChangeCarbon FeedbackThawingMethane Emissions